ABSTRACT
Background. Numerous predictive clinical scores with varying discriminatory performance have been developed in the context of the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. To support clinical application, we test the transferability of the frequently applied 4C mortality score (4C score) to the German prospective Cross-Sectoral Platform (SUEP) of the National Pandemic Cohort Network (NAPKON) compared to the non COVID-19 specific quick sequential organ failure assessment score (qSOFA). Our project aims to externally validate these two scores, stratified for the most prevalent variants of concerns (VOCs) of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Germany. Methods. A total of 685 adults with polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-detected SARS-CoV-2 infection were included from NAPKON-SUEP. Patients were recruited from 11/2020 to 03/2022 at 34 university and non-university hospitals across Germany. Missing values were complemented using multiple imputation. Predictive performance for in-hospital mortality at day of baseline visit was determined by area under the curve (AUC) with 95%-confidence interval (CI) stratified by VOCs of SARS-CoV-2 (alpha, delta, omicron) (Figure 1). Figure 1: Study flow chart with inclusion criteria and methodological workflow. Results. Preliminary results suggest a high predictive performance of the 4C score for in-hospital mortality (Table 1). This applies for the overall cohort (AUC 0.813 (95%CI 0.738-0.888)) as well as the VOC-strata (alpha: AUC 0.859 (95%CI 0.748-0.970);delta: AUC 0.769 (95%CI 0.657-0.882);omicron: AUC 0.866 (95%CI 0.724-1.000)). The overall mortality rates across the defined 4C score risk groups are 0.3% (low), 3.2% (intermediate), 11.6% (high), and 49.5% (very high). The 4C score performs significantly better than the qSOFA (Chi2-test: p=0.001) and the qSOFA does not seem to be a suitable tool in this context. Table 1: Discriminatory performance of the 4C Mortality Score and the qSOFA score within the validation cohort NAPKON-SUEP stratified by the Variant of Concerns of SARS-CoV- 2. Conclusion. Despite its development in the early phase of the pandemic and improved treatment, external validation of the 4C score in NAPKON-SUEP indicates a high predictive performance for in-hospital mortality across all VOCs. However, since the qSOFA was not specifically designed for this predictive issue, it shows low discriminatory performance, as in other validation studies. Any interpretations regarding the omicron stratum are limited due to the sample size.
ABSTRACT
PURPOSE: Over the course of COVID-19 pandemic, evidence has accumulated that SARS-CoV-2 infections may affect multiple organs and have serious clinical sequelae, but on-site clinical examinations with non-hospitalized samples are rare. We, therefore, aimed to systematically assess the long-term health status of samples of hospitalized and non-hospitalized SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals from three regions in Germany. METHODS: The present paper describes the COVIDOM-study within the population-based cohort platform (POP) which has been established under the auspices of the NAPKON infrastructure (German National Pandemic Cohort Network) of the national Network University Medicine (NUM). Comprehensive health assessments among SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals are conducted at least 6 months after the acute infection at the study sites Kiel, Würzburg and Berlin. Potential participants were identified and contacted via the local public health authorities, irrespective of the severity of the initial infection. A harmonized examination protocol has been implemented, consisting of detailed assessments of medical history, physical examinations, and the collection of multiple biosamples (e.g., serum, plasma, saliva, urine) for future analyses. In addition, patient-reported perception of the impact of local pandemic-related measures and infection on quality-of-life are obtained. RESULTS: As of July 2021, in total 6813 individuals infected in 2020 have been invited into the COVIDOM-study. Of these, about 36% wished to participate and 1295 have already been examined at least once. CONCLUSION: NAPKON-POP COVIDOM-study complements other Long COVID studies assessing the long-term consequences of an infection with SARS-CoV-2 by providing detailed health data of population-based samples, including individuals with various degrees of disease severity. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Registered at the German registry for clinical studies (DRKS00023742).